Our winter may reproduce the gas shortage

Our winter may reproduce the gas shortage press photo by Ginger g Red

November 12, Beijing resident natural gas pricing hearings. Reporter Luoxiaoguang photo

Following the Shenyang, Hefei, Changsha and other city gas prices after the hearing, November 12, China's largest natural gas consumption in the city — — Beijing residential gas price adjustment of the hearing. This is May 31, national development and Reform Commission publication on improving domestic onshore natural gas factory base price notification, residential gas price adjustment in accordance with the provisions of the action held follow-up.

This round of gas price adjustments on our natural gas supply and demand will influence what? almost every year during winter and spring season of all large outbreak of "gas shortage" phenomenon, this year will not be repeated? the information daily reporter in the interview to obtain answers to surprising: If you follow the current natural gas market momentum of the disordered growth, China's "gas shortage" issue may be inevitable.

"Gas shortage" of "panic": supply and demand situation increasingly grim and raised the price of a hand

Just enter the threshold of the winter, about "gas shortage" topic will once again become the focus of public concern.

Analysis of "gas shortage" topic of concern, the National Energy Board, Deputy Director-General Secretary Dennis strongly believes that the first, with the rapid development of urban construction and people's living standards, consumption of natural gas into the common people home, become daily necessities, but over the past few years, almost every winter city break out natural gas tension, and in the hearts of the people left behind too deep memory, so this winter "gas shortage" has not yet occurred, the first in the heart of the "panic"; Secondly, according to the climate change predicted that this winter is the probability of a "chill" is large, urban heating situation, natural gas demand will increase, thereby further imbalance may be more prominent.

In fact, this year's natural gas supply tension has appeared in some places quietly. It is said, in view of the recent temperatures, Wuhan daily volume has begun to sharply increase than cooling for nearly 10 million cubic metres, while in Beijing, the city's more than 60% of heating area use natural gas heating, gas consumption is expected to be $ 61 billion cubic meters, the heating season 6 .64 billion cubic meters, the growth rate of 13%.

Including senior government officials, industry insiders are possible for this year's "gas shortage" stretch a sensitive nerve root. As early as mid-October, national development and Reform Commission will held in Hangzhou kurtosis winter natural gas security coordination, and reform LAU Tit men remind said: "a significant increase in the new user, the rapid growth in consumer demand, the gas peak capacity is insufficient, and the uncertain weather factors impact winter gas peak baogong situation is not optimistic. ”

Posted by Customs at the beginning of this year's report confirms that the domestic gas supply and demand gap for rendering has expanded each year, is expected in 2010 China natural gas supply and demand gap of about 300 million cubic metres of natural gas supply and demand gap in 2015 will be more than 400 billion cubic meters. To fill the gap in domestic gas market, you can only select from the overseas import — imports through the pipeline, including land and sea LN G import two channels.

However, in China, compared with petroleum, as high-quality clean energy of natural gas, for a long time there was a price low, the resulting import gas price with domestic gas supply contradictions between upside down. This area has become the oil and gas suppliers "import i.e. losses" unspeakable pain, on the other hand it is the domestic natural gas consumption growth disorder.

"With the international and domestic energy market supply and demand changes in the domestic natural gas prices low conflict have become increasingly prominent. To promote resource conservation, straighten out natural gas prices and other alternative energy price comparison between boot and natural gas resources allocation, decided to increase domestic natural gas prices, a perfect natural gas related price policy and supporting measures. "National development and Reform Commission for the natural gas price adjustment" Declaration ", opened a new round of national gas price hikes.

"Gas shortage" concern: the market supply and demand imbalances in external dependency increasing

National development and Reform Commission, Deputy Director, Energy Secretary Zhang turning in recent years the "gas shortage" of reason with the words: "supply and demand imbalances." According to analysis, supply and demand imbalances caused, not in short supply, but quickly magnify downstream market demand. Data display: North China natural gas consumption compared to the same period last year, the General increase in more than 50%; natural gas in the southern most used, the last couple of years the consumption of geometrically-class growth.

It is understood that in the global climate change and the development of low-carbon economy, under the pressure of natural gas as a clean and efficient energy sources, in recent years consumption has grown explosively. Especially in China, with the rapid economic development and structural adjustment of energy consumption, increasing demand for natural gas market.

"The use of natural gas to reduce sulphur dioxide and dust emissions by nearly 100%, reduce carbon emissions by 60% and nitrogen oxides emissions by 50%, and help reduce acid

Rain formation, delaying the greenhouse effect, fundamentally improve environmental quality. Moreover, our natural gas consumption in primary energy constitutes the also very low, even less than the world average of 1/10. "Some experts from this judgment," China's huge natural gas market development space. ”

However, due to a serious lack of our own reserves, the market supply and demand increasingly sharp contradiction, especially as the natural gas imports continues to grow, to increase our country's natural gas supply. Data show that China's since 2006 become net importers of natural gas, imports increased year by year. In 2009, imports $ 78 billion cubic meters, external dependence for more than 8%; by 2010, gas gap will reach 300 billion cubic meters, external dependence to 12.8%; 2015, China's imports of natural gas will account for natural gas consumption by 30% by 2020, China natural gas external dependence will reach 50%.

"This is a dangerous signal, people had to produce natural gas consumption in China is likely to fall into the ' oil curse ' worries. "A long term study of oil and gas market analysts told the information daily", "as the market expands, the future of natural gas consumption in China could become and petroleum, become dependent on international markets is an important source of energy. "It is predicted that this year will reach China's crude oil imports 7785 million tons, external dependence will more than 54%.

China University of petroleum China oil and gas Development Research Center Director Dong soo into this judgment: "the future of our country's natural gas supply security problems that may be more than oil. "He called, you must change the current natural gas consumption market expansion of disordered, the relevant national departments should develop plans for the development of science, the natural gas industry and embark on a coordinated development of downstream on the path of sustainable growth.

It is understood that, as early as in September 2007, national development and Reform Commission has stood on the contradiction between the supply and demand "mitigation of natural gas, natural gas use structure, optimized to promote energy conservation and emission reduction working", the adoption of the policy on natural gas utilization. This policy requires that our natural gas utilization policies by countries and manpower planning, taking into account the reasonable requirements of the gas fields; adhere to differentiate, to ensure that natural gas is used in gas, promoting scientific utilization of natural gas, and orderly development; insist on saving priority, improve the efficiency of resource use.

But in fact, the natural gas utilization has presented the present situation of disordered development. For example, industrial gas has constantly grown. Particularly to natural gas as raw materials for chemical fertilizer production enterprises have been launched, and cause our fertilizer production capacity in excess of the obvious. A national fertilizer production survey, 2009 China fertilizer total surplus of more than 150 000 tonnes, however, many enterprises still have expansion plans.

"Hang" on the road: in straightening out price shall intensify the exploitation of unconventional gas

Analysis of natural gas consumption growth disorder, many experts to price factors. China petrochemical co., Ltd. CEO Zhoujiping said: "as clean energy, and natural gas prices compared to foreign countries, China natural gas price is very low. ”

Price is a sensitive topic, from the different perspectives may arrive at quite different conclusions. From secondary school textbooks description might be more persuasive. Journalists in the eleventh grade geography books see this text description: gas advantage is "clean, clean, easy to use; combustion efficiency, compare prices low."

From a value point of view, the price adjustments are considered to be an effective regulation of the market supply and demand. It is understood that straightened out to oil, gas and other energy resources price will become the "twelve five of the reform of important measures". The CPC Central Committee on the formulation of national economic and social development of the twelfth planning recommendations for proposed to deepen the prices of resource products and the elements of market reforms, streamlining coal, electricity, oil, gas and other resources products price relations, improve the price formation mechanism.

So, the national development and reform of the price adjustment, can become "regulating supply and demand in the market, explains the ' gas shortage ' challenges," keen edge? Dong soo to accept the information daily "interview:" from the natural gas price adjustments, to curb the downstream market of disorderly expansion will have a role, but in the long run, it is difficult to change supply and demand of China natural gas market, future recurrence of the dilemma of ' gas shortage ' risks remain. ”

Dong soo% said that China is a "rich in coal, oil and gas". Statistics show that global proven natural gas resource remaining recoverable to 185 million billion cubic meters, China natural gas proved tapped only 2 .46 trillion cubic meters, only global resources 1.3%. The per capita amount of natural gas resources in the same pathetic, my only amounted to a world average of 1/7. Although in recent years to China Petroleum-and gas-producing enterprises in China's natural gas production has a more substantial growth, and more rapid growth of market demand, there are still large gaps.

"To resolve the problem, China safety gas supply must be multi-pronged. "Dong soo% said," the reform of the increased price, namely the rationalisation of the natural gas price mechanism, but also to accelerate the pace of unconventional gas development, from the source to get rid of the international gas market growing dependence. ”

It is understood that the non-conventional natural gas including shale gas, coal bed methane and tight gas, etc. A private think tanks — Bernstein research company (Be

RnsteinR esearch) 's latest research report shows, if stored in rock and coal bed methane in the "non-conventional forms of" natural gas into account, the total amount of natural gas storage in China would be as much as $ 3687 trillion cubic meters. These "non-conventional forms of" storage of natural gas in China proved natural gas reserves in up to 75%. According to the 2010-2015, China gas industry investment analysis and forecast report, China's unconventional natural gas resources is 5 times faster than conventional natural gas, including the amount of resources of coal bed methane is about $ 170 billion cubic meters, shale gas preliminary estimates of the amount of resources in the 30 trillion cubic meters, with great development potential and economic benefits.

"China is not required for the growth of the natural gas shortage before. "Bernstein research company researchers said," If you can turn many to unconventional forms of storage of natural gas in full development, China is also expected to more than 100 years time, adequate supply of natural gas. "(A reporter Wang Li Xinmin interns Joux Roundup)

■ Interview notes

China natural gas be break "oil curse"

□ Li Xinmin

United States White House energy security consultant David · Sandro wrote a booklet entitled "breaking" oil curse "— how to get rid of oil dependence on the book. Excessive dependence on petroleum consumption in the United States actively seeking out petroleum-dependent path, 54% dependence on foreign oil, allow rapid development of China also faces break "oil curse", it seems must be selected as a new selection of natural gas consumption in the rapid growth in recent years.

However, in recent years frequently appears in the "gas shortage" issue, so we had to produce a brand new thinking: as a "rich coal, oil, gas," developing country, China's rapid growth in natural gas consumption, accompanied by a substantial increase of imports of natural gas. According to forecasts, 5-10 years later, external dependence on natural gas in China will exceed 50 per cent.